Sunday, 19 July 2015

Iran - Peace in our time.

There has been a large backlash to the new proposed agreement with Iran over their development of nuclear energy. A lot of people, especially in the US Congress, have claimed that the US has betrayed it people by signing up to what is virtually a peace deal. I will admit that the whole deal looks a bit dodgy, however, we have seen it before. Just before WW2, the British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain announced the now famous saying "peace in our time".
The phrase "Peace for Our Time" was spoken on 30 September 1938 by British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain in his speech concerning the Munich Agreement and the Anglo-German Declaration.

The Munich Agreement was a settlement permitting Nazi Germany's annexation of portions of Czechoslovakia along the country's borders mainly inhabited by German speakers, for which a new territorial designation "Sudetenland" was coined. The agreement was negotiated at a conference held in Munich, Germany, among the major powers of Europe, excluding the Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia. Today, it is widely regarded as a failed act of appeasement toward Germany. The agreement was signed in the early hours of 30 September 1938 (but dated 29 September). The purpose of the conference was to discuss the future of the Sudetenland in the face of ethnic demands made by Adolf Hitler. The agreement was signed by Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy. Sudetenland was of immense strategic importance to Czechoslovakia, as most of its border defenses were situated there, and many of its banks and heavy industries were located there as well.
Hitler and Chamberlian inspecting the troops at Munich

Because the state of Czechoslovakia was not invited to the conference, it considered itself to have been betrayed by the United Kingdom and France, so Czechs and Slovaks call the Munich Agreement the Munich Diktat also known as "Munich Betrayal". In short, Czechoslovakia was divided up by Germany and England while the Czechs had no say in the process.
Chamberlain and Hitler on signing the Munich Agreement

Neville Chamberlain landed at Heston Aerodrome on 30 September 1938, and spoke to the crowds there about the Munich Agreement:
“The settlement of the Czechoslovakian problem, which has now been achieved is, in my view, only the prelude to a larger settlement in which all Europe may find peace. This morning I had another talk with the German Chancellor, Herr Hitler, and here is the paper which bears his name upon it as well as mine. Some of you, perhaps, have already heard what it contains but I would just like to read it to you: ' ... We regard the agreement signed last night and the Anglo-German Naval Agreement as symbolic of the desire of our two peoples never to go to war with one another again.'
Chamberlain at Heston Aerodrome

Later that day Chamberlain stood outside 10 Downing Street and again read from the document and concluded:
My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Go home and get a nice quiet sleep

Even though the Munich Agreement was "supposed" to prevent war, Chamberlain agreed to Hitler's demands as to give England some breathing room. He was prepared to sacrifice another nation and its peoples for his own country's interests. Chamberlain knew that this would not stop Hitler annexing of other countries, but it would slow him a little. It would then give England the opportunity to continue to build their defences and to prepare for a war that they knew would eventually come. It was a shrewd move by the English, but it lead to problems in the long run.

At this moment in time history is repeating itself. The recent Iran agreement on nuclear 'power is the same thing as Chamberlain's deal. The Western countries know the day will come when they they will have to take out the Iranians. However, at this point in time, the West knows that they need to get Iran onside. If Iran is more favourable to the US then, hopefully it will be less likely that they will side with ISIS.

This is because of the old say, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. If we keep Iran as an enemy if any issues were to arise with Western nations, Iran will look for support for anyone else that is also have the same trouble. They may not like each other, but they would then share a common goal. And if Iran does have nuclear weapons, we would prefer that they are friends with us and not handing them over to ISIS.

The last thing anybody, who is sane, wants is for radicals to have a nuclear weapon. Unlike most leader of various countries, ISIS would use a nuclear device. They would not care about the effects it may have on them in backlash, they would use it.

So the current deal with Iran is to try and keep ISIS from getting nuclear weapons. It also allows the US the have another foot in the Middle East. The US and the Western world also want to see just what Mr Putin is doing in the region. Russia has strong links with Iran and the US wants to ensure that if there is any war in the future (yeah right, "if", more like when) then again they will want Iran on their side.

We may not like Iran. They may do a lot of things that we do not like, such as hanging anyone accused of being gay, but it is better to have them agreeing with us for the time being, then fighting against us. The last time Western Country meddled in Middle East affairs, they took out some one that we didn't like, we allowed ISIS to grow.

Saddam Hussein was a bad man, but, he was a bad man that worked well for us. Saddam kept various groups under control. It was brutal regime and included torture and execution, but were are a lot of factions in the Middle East that were held in check by his policies. Sure we not may have liked his methods, but it worked and he was better than what we have now. And sometimes it is to better to have the devil you know.

In fact, if we look back at England and Hitler again you will see something similar. During WW2 the Allies tried to assassinate Hitler many times. However, after a while they stopped. Even though Hitler and his henchmen were evil, they were stupid in the area of military tactics. The Allies quickly realised that while they may not like Hitler, he was the best thing for the Ally war effort. By leaving him in place, it would stop a brilliant tactician from gaining power and creating real trouble for the Allies. Plus, there were so many people in his own country trying to kill him, we no longer needed to bother, but that is another story altogether.

Once Saddam was removed and Iraq fell into turmoil, various factions have arose, annoyed about the unlawful invasion by the US, Australia and other allied forces. The coalition forces got it wrong. The tried to force freedom (an oxymoron) on to the Iraqis. Of course it didn't work. The main problem was, that even though the coalition had studied Iraq and though they knew what they were doing, they didn't really understand the people. You can study a place all you want, but unless you grow up with the beliefs and customs you will never fully understand it. You will always have you bias affecting your judgement. And that mistake caused massive problems and resentment in Iraq. Plus all the little factions started to rise up. So in the long run, the reason we have ISIS now is because once we removed Saddam, people were annoyed, and he was no longer there to keep them in check.

So hopefully the US has learned from their mistakes. If George Bush had followed the Allies lead from WW2 and worked with Saddam, then we would not be in such a mess.

However, Bush rushed in after Afghanistan as they still had popular support from the 9/11 attacks and he and his cronies lied about weapons of mass destruction supposedly owned by Iraq. They did this to just invade Iraq which would destabilize the Middle East, which it did, and affect oil prices. Plus no weapons of mass destruction were ever found in Iraq. So we lied to invade, found nothing and disrupted the whole Middle East, help to create ISIS and now we need to work with Iran to ensure things in the area don't get worse, which they wouldn't have if we hadn't invaded in the first place. And that is why we now have a new agreement to have peace in our time.

So peace in our time. It is a lie. We have this Iran agreement because the powers that be know that sooner rather than later we will be going to war. The only problem with such solutions is they never work. While the Munich Agreement gave England breathing room, it also gave Hitler time to build his defences and to burrow deep into Europe. It then took nearly five years go dig him back out. How long will it take to take out Iran?

With everything going on the question you need to ask is, what can I do about this? First, learn. Dont just believe what you read or hear, even this article. Question what you are told so that you can prepare for any outcome. The mass media will give bland, homogenized news. You need to look beyond the mass media to find various opinions. You dont have to agree with them but be willing to challenge what you know.

Be aware of radical groups rising up in your own country. No matter where they are in the world or what religion they believe radicals are dangerous. They ignore truths and force their opinions on people. You need to remain open minded. Learning will help to do that. Radicals form normally out of fear as well. Again learning will help to dispel irrational fears.

You also need to prepare. Once you know, or have a good understanding of the situation, prepare yourself. That means look after you finances, pay down expenses, invest in tangible assets, such as houses and have some liquid assets, that means cash. If things go wrong and we head into war, you want to be able to have extra sources of income in case you lose your job, or you have to flee your area. It would be nice to say that we won't be attacked but if war breaks out, there are very little assurances of what may happen.

Be alert. Again I don't think we will have nuclear war, so you wont need bunkers or to prepare for doomsday. Just know what is going on for when you travel to other countries. And watch for the signs of war.

Hopefully that I am wrong. I really hope I am wrong. If I am right I will be disappointed, for I know things will be bad around the world, however more of that in more new book. The main thing is, you prepare for the worse and hope for the best. If I am wrong, and we have continuing peace in our time, you will still be in front. You will be better off financially and able to live a better life. If I am right, you will be in a far better spot than those who do not prepare.

In the long run, it is not about what happens between Iran and the rest of the world. It is all about you. What are you prepared to do to ensure you safety in your finances, your health, your assets and your family? Don't wait, and please dont panic, but start taking action now.
Is Obama just imitating Chamberlain?

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.